Playoff Odds

2026 season · through week 10

Each remaining game is played from the ML engine's win probability; the playoff field is then picked by our résumé ranking, as the committee would pick by results.

TeamPlayoff %Conf title %MedianProjected finish
Miami98%90%3
Alabama95%23%4
Georgia95%57%3
Notre Dame95%100%4
Utah88%75%5
Indiana78%44%6
UCLA76%44%6
Texas74%14%9
Boise State69%100%12
Wake Forest48%9%13
Kentucky48%6%13
Texas Tech42%16%13
Iowa38%2%16
Ohio State36%1%15
Oregon34%1%17
BYU32%5%16
Houston31%4%18
Tennessee24%1%16
LSU22%<1%21
USC16%8%20
New Mexico16%79%19
Ole Miss15%0%20
Liberty15%98%18
Arizona5%1%25
South Carolina4%0%25
SMU2%<1%33
Duke1%<1%38
Illinois1%<1%41
North Texas<1%56%31
Wisconsin<1%0%21
Missouri<1%0%38
UTSA<1%26%44
Louisiana Tech<1%48%33
Oklahoma<1%0%39
Clemson<1%0%45
Auburn<1%0%41
Northwestern<1%0%34
James Madison<1%51%30
Air Force0%16%40
Akron0%0%137
App State0%0%83
Arizona State0%0%67
Arkansas0%0%95
Arkansas State0%0%106
Army0%0%75
Ball State0%0%115
Baylor0%0%50
Boston College0%0%83
Bowling Green0%0%129
Buffalo0%4%64
California0%0%113
Central Michigan0%0%91
Charlotte0%0%136
Cincinnati0%0%63
Coastal Carolina0%0%120
Colorado0%0%99
Colorado State0%0%117
Delaware0%0%112
East Carolina0%0%69
Eastern Michigan0%0%112
Florida0%0%38
Florida Atlantic0%<1%71
Florida International0%0%94
Florida State0%0%66
Fresno State0%0%70
Georgia Southern0%<1%71
Georgia State0%0%81
Georgia Tech0%0%124
Hawai'i0%0%122
Iowa State0%0%74
Jacksonville State0%2%42
Kansas0%0%101
Kansas State0%0%100
Kennesaw State0%0%110
Kent State0%0%122
Louisiana0%1%61
Louisville0%0%38
Marshall0%0%91
Maryland0%0%111
Massachusetts0%0%103
Memphis0%17%37
Miami (OH)0%<1%85
Michigan0%0%59
Michigan State0%0%90
Middle Tennessee0%0%96
Minnesota0%0%70
Mississippi State0%0%54
Missouri State0%0%123
NC State0%0%101
Navy0%0%102
Nebraska0%0%64
Nevada0%0%108
New Mexico State0%0%114
North Carolina0%0%42
North Dakota State0%5%39
Northern Illinois0%0%135
Ohio0%33%49
Oklahoma State0%0%38
Old Dominion0%0%123
Oregon State0%0%67
Penn State0%0%51
Pittsburgh0%0%42
Purdue0%0%101
Rice0%0%131
Rutgers0%0%122
Sacramento State0%0%135
Sam Houston0%0%134
San Diego State0%0%92
San José State0%0%106
South Alabama0%0%104
South Florida0%1%62
Southern Miss0%0%123
Stanford0%0%90
Syracuse0%0%90
TCU0%0%78
Temple0%0%127
Texas A&M0%0%66
Texas State0%0%46
Toledo0%50%49
Troy0%0%105
Tulane0%0%106
Tulsa0%0%72
UAB0%0%87
UCF0%0%56
UConn0%0%98
UL Monroe0%0%133
UNLV0%0%86
UTEP0%0%135
Utah State0%0%76
Vanderbilt0%0%89
Virginia0%0%91
Virginia Tech0%0%51
Washington0%0%64
Washington State0%0%127
West Virginia0%0%68
Western Kentucky0%0%114
Western Michigan0%13%59
Wyoming0%1%64

This week's leverage

TeamOpponentIf winIf lossSwing
Boise StateOregon State94%2%+92%
Wake ForestSMU75%9%+66%
IndianaUSC91%37%+54%
OregonMichigan50%<1%+50%
KentuckyFlorida67%18%+49%
BYUBaylor50%1%+49%
Texas TechOklahoma State65%19%+46%
UCLAIllinois85%39%+46%
USCIndiana50%6%+44%
HoustonColorado43%<1%+43%
Ohio StateNorthwestern42%0%+42%
IowaPurdue40%0%+40%
LSUTexas37%0%+37%
TexasLSU96%59%+37%
TennesseeTexas A&M39%3%+36%
Notre DameBoston College96%62%+34%
AlabamaVanderbilt98%64%+34%
GeorgiaMissouri99%68%+31%
Ole MissOklahoma28%0%+28%
UtahArizona99%74%+25%
New MexicoUNLV19%0%+19%
LibertyMiddle Tennessee15%0%+15%
MiamiDuke>99%86%+14%
ArizonaUtah11%0%+11%
DukeMiami6%0%+6%
South CarolinaArkansas5%0%+5%
SMUWake Forest4%0%+4%
MissouriGeorgia3%0%+3%
IllinoisUCLA3%0%+3%
UTSANorth Texas1%0%+1%
North TexasUTSA1%0%+1%
WisconsinMaryland1%0%+1%
OklahomaOle Miss1%0%+1%
Louisiana TechSouthern Miss<1%0%+0%
NorthwesternOhio State<1%0%+0%
AuburnMississippi State<1%0%+0%
ClemsonGeorgia Tech<1%0%+0%
James MadisonUConn<1%0%+0%
AkronWestern Michigan0%0%+0%
Western MichiganAkron0%0%+0%
Bowling GreenKent State0%0%+0%
Kent StateBowling Green0%0%+0%
Miami (OH)Ohio0%0%+0%
OhioMiami (OH)0%0%+0%
Ball StateBuffalo0%0%+0%
BuffaloBall State0%0%+0%
Central MichiganSacramento State0%0%+0%
Sacramento StateCentral Michigan0%0%+0%
ToledoMassachusetts0%0%+0%
MassachusettsToledo0%0%+0%
South FloridaMemphis0%0%+0%
MemphisSouth Florida0%0%+0%
UL MonroeLouisiana0%0%+0%
LouisianaUL Monroe0%0%+0%
PittsburghFlorida State0%0%+0%
Florida StatePittsburgh0%0%+0%
ColoradoHouston0%0%+0%
Mississippi StateAuburn0%0%+0%
MarylandWisconsin0%0%+0%
UConnJames Madison0%0%+0%
Iowa StateCincinnati0%0%+0%
CincinnatiIowa State0%0%+0%
NC StateSyracuse0%0%+0%
SyracuseNC State0%0%+0%
RutgersNebraska0%0%+0%
NebraskaRutgers0%0%+0%
Georgia TechClemson0%0%+0%
VanderbiltAlabama0%0%+0%
Coastal CarolinaArkansas State0%0%+0%
Arkansas StateCoastal Carolina0%0%+0%
TempleUAB0%0%+0%
UABTemple0%0%+0%
CharlotteEast Carolina0%0%+0%
East CarolinaCharlotte0%0%+0%
TCUKansas State0%0%+0%
Kansas StateTCU0%0%+0%
Sam HoustonKennesaw State0%0%+0%
Kennesaw StateSam Houston0%0%+0%
RiceTulane0%0%+0%
TulaneRice0%0%+0%
DelawareFlorida International0%0%+0%
Florida InternationalDelaware0%0%+0%
Missouri StateNew Mexico State0%0%+0%
New Mexico StateMissouri State0%0%+0%
Texas A&MTennessee0%0%+0%
BaylorBYU0%0%+0%
Georgia StateGeorgia Southern0%0%+0%
Georgia SouthernGeorgia State0%0%+0%
TulsaFlorida Atlantic0%0%+0%
Florida AtlanticTulsa0%0%+0%
MichiganOregon0%0%+0%
Western KentuckyJacksonville State0%0%+0%
Jacksonville StateWestern Kentucky0%0%+0%
VirginiaCalifornia0%0%+0%
CaliforniaVirginia0%0%+0%
UCFArizona State0%0%+0%
Arizona StateUCF0%0%+0%
Middle TennesseeLiberty0%0%+0%
Northern IllinoisNevada0%0%+0%
NevadaNorthern Illinois0%0%+0%
Boston CollegeNotre Dame0%0%+0%
Texas StateFresno State0%0%+0%
Fresno StateTexas State0%0%+0%
Michigan StateWashington0%0%+0%
WashingtonMichigan State0%0%+0%
Southern MissLouisiana Tech0%0%+0%
West VirginiaKansas0%0%+0%
KansasWest Virginia0%0%+0%
Oregon StateBoise State0%0%+0%
MarshallApp State0%0%+0%
App StateMarshall0%0%+0%
FloridaKentucky0%0%+0%
North CarolinaLouisville0%0%+0%
LouisvilleNorth Carolina0%0%+0%
Penn StateMinnesota0%0%+0%
MinnesotaPenn State0%0%+0%
Air ForceSan José State0%0%+0%
San José StateAir Force0%0%+0%
South AlabamaTroy0%0%+0%
TroySouth Alabama0%0%+0%
UNLVNew Mexico0%0%+0%
Virginia TechStanford0%0%+0%
StanfordVirginia Tech0%0%+0%
PurdueIowa0%0%+0%
ArkansasSouth Carolina0%0%+0%
San Diego StateUtah State0%0%+0%
Utah StateSan Diego State0%0%+0%
Oklahoma StateTexas Tech0%0%+0%
UTEPWyoming0%0%+0%
WyomingUTEP0%0%+0%
Washington StateColorado State0%0%+0%
Colorado StateWashington State0%0%+0%
Hawai'iNorth Dakota State0%0%+0%
North Dakota StateHawai'i0%0%+0%

Seed 202610 · 5000 simulated seasons · each remaining game's winner is drawn from the two teams' ratings, with the margin sized to the favorite's win probability (not simply the winner's), so upsets still get upset-sized margins.