Spreads
A self-graded accuracy check on the site's power ratings. Power is in points, so a game's predicted home margin is just home power minus away power plus home field (none at a neutral site); each week is predicted from earlier weeks only, and graded against the real final margin. Not a betting line, and not betting advice: no market data (odds, juice, line movement) goes into it.
2025 validation
MAE 12.5 points over 490 games (the classic resume model missed by 13.6 on the same games)
| Predicted range | Games | Mean predicted | Mean actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| < -21 | 3 | -22.8 | -14.0 |
| -21 to -14 | 15 | -16.7 | -17.6 |
| -14 to -7 | 53 | -9.8 | -7.7 |
| -7 to -3 | 61 | -5.0 | -6.8 |
| -3 to 0 | 64 | -1.3 | +0.2 |
| 0 to 3 | 71 | +1.5 | -0.5 |
| 3 to 7 | 73 | +4.9 | +7.7 |
| 7 to 14 | 97 | +10.3 | +14.9 |
| 14 to 21 | 38 | +16.5 | +20.1 |
| ≥ 21 | 15 | +25.3 | +33.1 |
Predicted vs. actual
This season
MAE 13.4 points over 511 graded games so far.