Top 25 vs AP

2026 · our ranking (wins above bubble, no polls consulted) next to the AP poll released after the same week's games. Gap: how many spots higher we have a team than the AP does. Who picks games better is on the Scoreboard.

Week 1

In both top 25s12/25

Average gap8.2spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.37over the AP's 25

Biggest splitMemphis#1 here · unranked in the AP

Ours	Team	AP	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Memphis	—	AP NR	+0.71	2-0
02	USC	14	+12	+0.58	2-0
03	SMU	17	+14	+0.51	1-0
04	Miami	7	+3	+0.36	1-0
05	UCLA	—	AP NR	+0.36	1-0
06	Massachusetts	—	AP NR	+0.36	1-0
07	Colorado	—	AP NR	+0.36	1-0
08	Notre Dame	3	−5	+0.30	1-0
09	North Carolina	—	AP NR	+0.30	1-0
10	Ole Miss	9	−1	+0.30	1-0
11	Auburn	—	AP NR	+0.30	1-0
12	North Dakota State	—	AP NR	+0.28	2-0
13	Indiana	5	−8	+0.25	1-0
14	Iowa	21	+7	+0.25	1-0
15	Oklahoma	11	−4	+0.25	1-0
16	Alabama	12	−4	+0.25	1-0
17	Florida	—	AP NR	+0.25	1-0
18	LSU	8	−10	+0.25	1-0
19	Mississippi State	—	AP NR	+0.25	1-0
20	Nebraska	—	AP NR	+0.25	1-0
21	Nevada	—	AP NR	+0.25	1-0
22	New Mexico	—	AP NR	+0.25	1-0
23	Ohio State	1	−22	+0.25	1-0
24	Penn State	16	−8	+0.25	1-0
25	Pittsburgh	—	AP NR	+0.25	1-0
In the AP top 25, outside ours
53	Georgia	2	−51	+0.00	1-0
27	Texas	4	−23	+0.25	1-0
41	Oregon	6	−35	+0.25	1-0
28	Texas A&M	10	−18	+0.25	1-0
81	Texas Tech	13	−68	+0.00	1-0
51	BYU	15	−36	+0.00	1-0
70	Tennessee	18	−52	+0.00	1-0
36	Washington	19	−17	+0.25	1-0
74	Utah	20	−54	+0.00	1-0
37	Houston	22	−15	+0.25	1-0
65	Missouri	23	−42	+0.00	1-0
128	Louisville	24	−104	−0.70	0-1
29	Virginia	25	−4	+0.25	1-0

Week 2

In both top 25s13/25

Average gap8.0spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.42over the AP's 25

Biggest splitDuke#2 here · unranked in the AP

Ours	Team	AP	Gap	WAB	Record
01	USC	12	+11	+0.81	3-0
02	Duke	—	AP NR	+0.70	2-0
03	Michigan	19	+16	+0.70	2-0
04	UCLA	—	AP NR	+0.63	2-0
05	Texas	1	−4	+0.62	2-0
06	South Florida	—	AP NR	+0.60	2-0
07	LSU	7	=	+0.58	2-0
08	Wake Forest	—	AP NR	+0.58	2-0
09	Tulsa	—	AP NR	+0.58	2-0
10	North Dakota State	—	AP NR	+0.58	3-0
11	Alabama	10	−1	+0.56	2-0
12	Auburn	—	AP NR	+0.56	2-0
13	Notre Dame	3	−10	+0.55	2-0
14	Penn State	14	=	+0.54	2-0
15	Mississippi State	—	AP NR	+0.52	2-0
16	Texas A&M	9	−7	+0.50	2-0
17	Pittsburgh	—	AP NR	+0.50	2-0
18	Indiana	4	−14	+0.46	2-0
19	SMU	16	−3	+0.44	2-0
20	Michigan State	—	AP NR	+0.40	2-0
21	Maryland	—	AP NR	+0.37	2-0
22	Missouri	20	−2	+0.37	2-0
23	Georgia State	—	AP NR	+0.37	2-0
24	Ole Miss	8	−16	+0.37	2-0
25	Miami	5	−20	+0.35	2-0
In the AP top 25, outside ours
51	Georgia	2	−49	+0.04	2-0
55	Ohio State	6	−49	−0.24	1-1
31	BYU	11	−20	+0.25	2-0
34	Texas Tech	13	−21	+0.25	2-0
26	Tennessee	15	−11	+0.31	2-0
43	Utah	17	−26	+0.16	2-0
28	Iowa	18	−10	+0.30	2-0
61	Oregon	21	−40	−0.36	1-1
45	Houston	22	−23	+0.13	2-0
86	Louisville	23	−63	−0.59	1-1
73	Oklahoma	24	−49	−0.42	1-1
30	Virginia	25	−5	+0.25	2-0

Week 3

In both top 25s14/25

Average gap7.1spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.39over the AP's 25

Biggest splitGeorgia#33 here · #2 in the AP

Ours	Team	AP	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Mississippi State	24	+23	+0.98	3-0
02	Ole Miss	4	+2	+0.97	3-0
03	Texas	1	−2	+0.92	3-0
04	Notre Dame	3	−1	+0.90	3-0
05	Alabama	8	+3	+0.86	3-0
06	Michigan	18	+12	+0.80	3-0
07	USC	12	+5	+0.79	4-0
08	Florida	21	+13	+0.70	3-0
09	Pittsburgh	—	AP NR	+0.68	3-0
10	UCLA	—	AP NR	+0.68	3-0
11	Virginia Tech	—	AP NR	+0.68	3-0
12	Duke	—	AP NR	+0.67	3-0
13	BYU	9	−4	+0.64	3-0
14	North Dakota State	—	AP NR	+0.60	4-0
15	West Virginia	—	AP NR	+0.60	3-0
16	Miami	6	−10	+0.58	3-0
17	Tulsa	—	AP NR	+0.55	3-0
18	Penn State	13	−5	+0.54	3-0
19	Texas Tech	11	−8	+0.53	3-0
20	South Florida	—	AP NR	+0.48	3-0
21	James Madison	—	AP NR	+0.42	3-0
22	Tennessee	14	−8	+0.39	3-0
23	Missouri	19	−4	+0.39	3-0
24	Vanderbilt	—	AP NR	+0.34	3-0
25	Kansas State	—	AP NR	+0.30	3-0
In the AP top 25, outside ours
33	Georgia	2	−31	+0.15	3-0
27	Indiana	5	−22	+0.25	3-0
44	Ohio State	7	−37	−0.19	2-1
38	LSU	10	−28	−0.07	2-1
36	Utah	15	−21	+0.10	3-0
49	Louisville	16	−33	−0.24	2-1
26	Iowa	17	−9	+0.30	3-0
72	Oregon	20	−52	−0.53	2-1
50	SMU	22	−28	−0.25	2-1
68	Texas A&M	23	−45	−0.51	2-1
64	Houston	25	−39	−0.49	2-1

Week 4

In both top 25s15/25

Average gap6.5spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.61over the AP's 25

Biggest splitOhio State#29 here · #5 in the AP

Ours	Team	AP	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Texas	1	=	+1.50	4-0
02	Alabama	7	+5	+1.07	4-0
03	Florida	8	+5	+1.03	4-0
04	Notre Dame	3	−1	+0.99	4-0
05	Mississippi State	16	+11	+0.98	4-0
06	UCLA	23	+17	+0.79	4-0
07	Texas Tech	12	+5	+0.75	4-0
08	Pittsburgh	—	AP NR	+0.59	4-0
09	Nebraska	—	AP NR	+0.59	4-0
10	Georgia	2	−8	+0.58	4-0
11	Utah	13	+2	+0.57	4-0
12	Iowa	14	+2	+0.56	4-0
13	Miami	4	−9	+0.51	4-0
14	Indiana	6	−8	+0.50	4-0
15	BYU	10	−5	+0.49	3-0
16	Virginia Tech	—	AP NR	+0.48	4-0
17	North Dakota State	—	AP NR	+0.46	4-0
18	Cincinnati	—	AP NR	+0.46	4-0
19	Ole Miss	9	−10	+0.46	3-1
20	Duke	—	AP NR	+0.45	4-0
21	James Madison	—	AP NR	+0.44	4-0
22	South Florida	—	AP NR	+0.43	4-0
23	Massachusetts	—	AP NR	+0.27	4-0
24	Wisconsin	—	AP NR	+0.26	3-1
25	Oregon	15	−10	+0.22	3-1
In the AP top 25, outside ours
29	Ohio State	5	−24	+0.01	3-1
27	LSU	11	−16	+0.06	3-1
40	Tennessee	17	−23	−0.23	3-1
30	USC	18	−12	−0.01	4-1
37	Oklahoma State	19	−18	−0.12	3-1
36	Houston	20	−16	−0.11	3-1
45	SMU	21	−24	−0.36	3-1
33	Boise State	22	−11	−0.04	3-1
26	Kentucky	24	−2	+0.11	3-1
38	Missouri	25	−13	−0.15	3-1

Week 5

In both top 25s18/25

Average gap7.1spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.51over the AP's 25

Biggest splitPittsburgh#7 here · #25 in the AP

Ours	Team	AP	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Alabama	6	+5	+1.91	5-0
02	Texas	1	−1	+1.53	4-0
03	Notre Dame	3	=	+1.46	5-0
04	Texas Tech	11	+7	+1.16	5-0
05	Miami	4	−1	+0.94	5-0
06	Mississippi State	17	+11	+0.93	4-1
07	Pittsburgh	25	+18	+0.90	5-0
08	BYU	8	=	+0.83	4-0
09	Indiana	7	−2	+0.75	5-0
10	UCLA	21	+11	+0.73	4-0
11	Kentucky	—	AP NR	+0.71	4-1
12	Nebraska	—	AP NR	+0.67	5-0
13	Georgia	2	−11	+0.63	5-0
14	Wisconsin	—	AP NR	+0.54	4-1
15	Utah	12	−3	+0.51	4-0
16	North Dakota State	—	AP NR	+0.50	5-0
17	James Madison	—	AP NR	+0.50	5-0
18	Houston	22	+4	+0.44	4-1
19	Duke	—	AP NR	+0.39	4-0
20	Missouri	14	−6	+0.37	4-1
21	Florida	16	−5	+0.39	4-1
22	Ohio State	5	−17	+0.33	4-1
23	Ole Miss	9	−14	+0.23	3-1
24	Oregon	13	−11	+0.20	3-1
25	Wake Forest	—	AP NR	+0.16	4-1
In the AP top 25, outside ours
32	LSU	10	−22	+0.01	4-1
29	Tennessee	15	−14	+0.06	4-1
34	Oklahoma State	18	−16	−0.14	3-1
27	USC	19	−8	+0.11	5-1
30	Iowa	20	−10	+0.05	4-1
31	Boise State	23	−8	+0.02	4-1
33	SMU	24	−9	−0.11	4-1

Week 6

In both top 25s21/25

Average gap5.0spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.69over the AP's 25

Biggest splitOhio State#19 here · #4 in the AP

Ours	Team	AP	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Notre Dame	2	+1	+1.45	6-0
02	Georgia	1	−1	+1.43	6-0
03	Indiana	5	+2	+1.35	6-0
04	Alabama	6	+2	+1.32	5-1
05	Texas Tech	10	+5	+1.17	5-0
06	UCLA	12	+6	+1.12	5-0
07	Kentucky	15	+8	+1.05	5-1
08	BYU	8	=	+1.00	5-0
09	Miami	3	−6	+0.98	5-0
10	Mississippi State	16	+6	+0.79	4-1
11	Houston	20	+9	+0.66	5-1
12	Texas	7	−5	+0.65	4-1
13	James Madison	—	AP NR	+0.61	6-0
14	Utah	11	−3	+0.57	5-0
15	Wake Forest	21	+6	+0.42	5-1
16	Boise State	23	+7	+0.39	5-1
17	Missouri	13	−4	+0.37	5-1
18	Wisconsin	—	AP NR	+0.30	4-1
19	Ohio State	4	−15	+0.29	5-1
20	Ole Miss	9	−11	+0.26	4-1
21	USC	19	−2	+0.24	6-1
22	Iowa	17	−5	+0.18	5-1
23	Northwestern	25	+2	+0.06	4-1
24	UTSA	—	AP NR	+0.04	5-1
25	Nebraska	—	AP NR	+0.01	5-1
In the AP top 25, outside ours
26	Tennessee	14	−12	−0.00	5-1
28	Oklahoma State	18	−10	−0.06	4-1
44	LSU	22	−22	−0.64	4-2
33	SMU	24	−9	−0.25	4-1

Week 7

In both top 25s21/25

Average gap4.0spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.81over the AP's 25

Biggest splitJames Madison#10 here · unranked in the AP

Ours	Team	AP	Gap	WAB	Record
01	BYU	2	+1	+1.69	6-0
02	Kentucky	12	+10	+1.33	6-1
03	UCLA	9	+6	+1.30	6-0
04	Miami	1	−3	+1.27	6-0
05	Texas Tech	8	+3	+1.19	6-0
06	Houston	14	+8	+1.00	6-1
07	Ohio State	3	−4	+0.88	6-1
08	Indiana	6	−2	+0.92	6-1
09	Notre Dame	4	−5	+0.86	6-1
10	James Madison	—	AP NR	+0.84	7-0
11	Ole Miss	7	−4	+0.79	5-1
12	Tennessee	11	−1	+0.74	6-1
13	Utah	10	−3	+0.69	6-0
14	Georgia	5	−9	+0.53	6-1
15	Alabama	13	−2	+0.64	5-2
16	Wake Forest	17	+1	+0.51	6-1
17	Northwestern	24	+7	+0.27	5-1
18	Iowa	15	−3	+0.23	5-1
19	Florida	20	+1	+0.21	5-2
20	Oregon	—	AP NR	+0.19	4-2
21	USC	16	−5	+0.32	6-1
22	Boise State	21	−1	+0.29	5-1
23	Mississippi State	—	AP NR	+0.17	4-2
24	Texas	19	−5	+0.03	4-2
25	UTSA	—	AP NR	+0.19	6-1
In the AP top 25, outside ours
30	LSU	18	−12	−0.15	5-2
34	Missouri	22	−12	−0.32	5-2
27	SMU	23	−4	+0.02	5-1
26	Arizona	25	−1	+0.02	5-1

Week 8

In both top 25s23/25

Average gap3.8spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.81over the AP's 25

Biggest splitUTSA#13 here · unranked in the AP

Ours	Team	AP	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Kentucky	9	+8	+1.63	7-1
02	Miami	1	−1	+1.59	7-0
03	UCLA	7	+4	+1.52	7-0
04	Indiana	4	=	+1.39	7-1
05	BYU	8	+3	+1.11	6-1
06	Utah	6	=	+1.08	7-0
07	Alabama	10	+3	+1.02	6-2
08	Notre Dame	5	−3	+1.00	6-1
09	Ohio State	2	−7	+0.99	6-1
10	Wake Forest	14	+4	+0.69	6-1
11	Texas	11	=	+0.64	5-2
12	Georgia	3	−9	+0.62	6-1
13	UTSA	—	AP NR	+0.47	7-1
14	Texas Tech	13	−1	+0.47	6-1
15	Houston	18	+3	+0.55	6-2
16	Arizona	22	+6	+0.37	6-1
17	Northwestern	20	+3	+0.36	6-1
18	Boise State	20	+2	+0.33	6-1
19	Florida	17	−2	+0.30	5-2
20	Ole Miss	12	−8	+0.53	5-2
21	LSU	15	−6	+0.36	6-2
22	Wisconsin	25	+3	+0.26	5-2
23	SMU	19	−4	+0.22	6-1
24	Tennessee	16	−8	+0.13	6-2
25	James Madison	—	AP NR	+0.03	7-1
In the AP top 25, outside ours
31	Missouri	23	−8	−0.20	5-2
28	Oklahoma State	24	−4	−0.33	5-2

Week 9

In both top 25s22/25

Average gap2.7spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.90over the AP's 25

Biggest splitUTSA#15 here · unranked in the AP

Ours	Team	AP	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Miami	1	=	+2.00	8-0
02	Kentucky	8	+6	+1.62	7-1
03	UCLA	5	+2	+1.47	8-0
04	Utah	3	−1	+1.40	8-0
05	Indiana	6	+1	+1.30	8-1
06	BYU	7	+1	+1.05	7-1
07	Notre Dame	4	−3	+0.98	7-1
08	Wake Forest	14	+6	+0.89	7-1
09	Georgia	2	−7	+0.85	7-1
10	Alabama	9	−1	+0.97	6-2
11	Texas	10	−1	+0.83	6-2
12	Ole Miss	12	=	+0.95	6-2
13	Texas Tech	13	=	+0.74	7-1
14	Boise State	20	+6	+0.68	7-1
15	UTSA	—	AP NR	+0.52	7-1
16	Houston	17	+1	+0.47	6-2
17	USC	18	+1	+0.45	7-2
18	Ohio State	11	−7	+0.54	6-2
19	LSU	15	−4	+0.43	6-2
20	Tennessee	16	−4	+0.18	6-2
21	Liberty	—	AP NR	+0.09	7-1
22	Missouri	19	−3	+0.02	6-2
23	Florida	25	+2	+0.10	5-3
24	Iowa	21	−3	−0.06	6-2
25	Oregon	—	AP NR	−0.07	5-3
In the AP top 25, outside ours
26	New Mexico	22	−4	−0.09	7-1
33	South Carolina	23	−10	−0.49	5-3
27	Arizona	24	−3	−0.20	6-2

Week 10

In both top 25s23/25

Average gap2.4spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.91over the AP's 25

Biggest splitAlabama#1 here · #7 in the AP

Ours	Team	AP	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Alabama	7	+6	+1.84	7-2
02	UCLA	4	+2	+1.78	9-0
03	Utah	2	−1	+1.77	9-0
04	Notre Dame	3	−1	+1.64	8-1
05	Miami	5	=	+1.86	8-1
06	Georgia	1	−5	+1.57	8-1
07	Kentucky	13	+6	+1.31	7-2
08	Texas	8	=	+1.20	7-2
09	Indiana	6	−3	+1.15	8-1
10	Wake Forest	11	+1	+0.86	8-1
11	BYU	12	+1	+0.73	7-2
12	Texas Tech	10	−2	+0.72	8-1
13	Oregon	18	+5	+0.70	6-3
14	Boise State	17	+3	+0.84	8-1
15	Tennessee	9	−6	+0.62	7-2
16	Houston	14	−2	+0.59	7-2
17	Ole Miss	19	+2	+0.42	6-3
18	USC	15	−3	+0.38	7-2
19	Iowa	16	−3	+0.35	7-2
20	Liberty	—	AP NR	+0.16	8-1
21	New Mexico	23	+2	+0.15	8-1
22	Ohio State	21	−1	−0.00	6-3
23	Arizona	22	−1	−0.01	7-2
24	LSU	24	=	−0.06	6-3
25	Wisconsin	—	AP NR	−0.11	6-3
In the AP top 25, outside ours
26	South Carolina	20	−6	−0.14	6-3
31	SMU	25	−6	−0.43	7-2

Across the season

Week	In both top 25s	Average gap	Rank correlation
W1	12/25	8.2	0.37
W2	13/25	8.0	0.42
W3	14/25	7.1	0.39
W4	15/25	6.5	0.61
W5	18/25	7.1	0.51
W6	21/25	5.0	0.69
W7	21/25	4.0	0.81
W8	23/25	3.8	0.81
W9	22/25	2.7	0.90
W10	23/25	2.4	0.91

Early weeks disagree most: the AP starts from a preseason poll, this ranking starts every team at zero.