If the season ended today

2026 · the 12-team playoff, picked two ways: by my résumé ranking and by the committee's latest top 25

From my résumé ranking · after week 10

Top half
First round · at No. 8
8Texas7-274%
9Indiana8-178%
Quarterfinal · bye
1AlabamaAUTO7-295%
Winner of 8 / 9
First round · at No. 5
5MiamiAUTO8-198%
12Boise StateAUTO8-169%
Quarterfinal · bye
4Notre Dame8-195%
Winner of 5 / 12
Bottom half
First round · at No. 7
7Kentucky7-248%
10Wake Forest8-148%
Quarterfinal · bye
2UCLAAUTO9-076%
Winner of 7 / 10
First round · at No. 6
6Georgia8-195%
11BYU7-232%
Quarterfinal · bye
3UtahAUTO9-088%
Winner of 6 / 11

Last four in

BYU No. 11, Wake Forest No. 10, Indiana No. 9, Texas No. 8

First four out

Texas Tech No. 12, Oregon No. 13, Tennessee No. 15, Houston No. 16

Conference champions (projected)

Alabama SEC, No. 1, UCLA Big Ten, No. 2, Utah Big 12, No. 3, Miami ACC, No. 5, Boise State Pac-12, No. 14

From the CFP committee's top 25 · released after week 9

Top half
First round · at No. 8
8UCLA8-0
9BYU7-1
Quarterfinal · bye
1MiamiAUTO8-0
Winner of 8 / 9
First round · at No. 5
12Boise StateAUTO7-1
Quarterfinal · bye
4IndianaAUTO8-1
Winner of 5 / 12
Bottom half
First round · at No. 7
7Texas6-2
Quarterfinal · bye
2GeorgiaAUTO7-1
Winner of 7 / 10
First round · at No. 6
Quarterfinal · bye
3UtahAUTO8-0
Winner of 6 / 11

Last four in

Notre Dame No. 11, Ole Miss No. 10, BYU No. 9, UCLA No. 8

First four out

Ohio State No. 12, Tennessee No. 13, LSU No. 14, Texas Tech No. 15

Conference champions (projected)

Miami ACC, No. 1, Georgia SEC, No. 2, Utah Big 12, No. 3, Indiana Big Ten, No. 4, Boise State Pac-12, No. 25

Where the two fields split

In my field, not the committee's: Wake Forest my No. 10 seed

In the committee's, not mine: Ole Miss their No. 10 seed

Biggest seeding gaps: Notre Dame 4 here, 11 there, UCLA 2 here, 8 there, Indiana 9 here, 4 there, Alabama 1 here, 5 there

How the field is picked

The five highest-ranked conference champions get automatic bids, seven at-large teams fill the rest, and all twelve are seeded straight by rank. Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes; seeds 5–8 host first-round games.

Conference title games haven't been played, so each league's champion is projected as its highest-ranked team (marked AUTO). If the committee hasn't ranked any team from a league, that league's champion comes from my order instead (AUTO*). The percentages are each team's playoff odds from simulating the rest of the season.

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