Weekly Picks
Week 11 · rating favorite vs. AP-poll-implied pick · AP ranks shown as #
ML pick: the ML engine's forecast from each team's play-by-play stats; “Differs” marks games where it backs the other side.
Upset picks: model vs. AP
2 games where the model favors the team the AP ranks lower or leaves unranked, most confident first. The model picks with its power ratings (how well a team plays, from scoring margins), not with our ranking (what a team has won), so it can back a team that sits below its opponent in our top 25. “Big upset”: the model gives that team 65% or better. When it splits from the AP, the model is 6–6 since week 7 (Scoreboard).
- Texas Tech at Oklahoma State62%model gives Oklahoma StateModel picksAP picks
Oklahoma State
Texas TechPower rankmakes the pick#15#26Our rankingrésumé, WAB#40#12AP poll—#10 - Texas at LSU60%model gives LSUModel picksAP picks
LSU
TexasPower rankmakes the pick#5#6Our rankingrésumé, WAB#24#8AP poll#24#8
All games
| Matchup | Favorite | Win % | ML pick | ML % | AP pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boston College at  #3Notre Dame | Notre Dame | 98% | Notre Dame | 97% | Notre Dame |
 #7Alabama at  Vanderbilt | Alabama | 97% | Alabama | 93% | Alabama |
 Middle Tennessee at  Liberty | Liberty | 93% | Liberty | 98% | — |
 Southern Miss at  Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech | 93% | Louisiana Tech | 86% | — |
 Louisiana at  UL Monroe | Louisiana | 88% | Louisiana | 80% | — |
 Georgia Tech at  Clemson | Clemson | 88% | Clemson | 75% | — |
 North Dakota State at  Hawai'i | North Dakota State | 88% | North Dakota State | 69% | — |
 Nebraska at  Rutgers | Nebraska | 87% | Nebraska | 85% | — |
 Western Michigan at  Akron | Western Michigan | 87% | Western Michigan | 83% | — |
 UNLV at  #23New Mexico | New Mexico | 87% | New Mexico | 87% | New Mexico |
 Sacramento State at  Central Michigan | Central Michigan | 86% | Central Michigan | 79% | — |
 #14Houston at  Colorado | Houston | 85% | Houston | 73% | Houston |
 Illinois at  #4UCLA | UCLA | 85% | UCLA | 81% | UCLA |
 Missouri at  #1Georgia | Georgia | 84% | Georgia | 88% | Georgia |
 East Carolina at  Charlotte | East Carolina | 82% | East Carolina | 82% | — |
 Stanford at  Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech | 81% | Virginia Tech | 90% | — |
 Duke at  #5Miami | Miami | 80% | Miami | 86% | Miami |
 Purdue at  #16Iowa | Iowa | 80% | Iowa | 94% | Iowa |
 California at  Virginia | Virginia | 79% | Virginia | 79% | — |
 Nevada at  Northern Illinois | Nevada | 79% | Nevada | 66% | — |
 Oregon State at  #17Boise State | Boise State | 78% | Boise State | 72% | Boise State |
 Michigan at  #18Oregon | Oregon | 78% | Oregon | 67% | Oregon |
 Jacksonville State at  Western Kentucky | Jacksonville State | 78% | Jacksonville State | 75% | — |
 San José State at  Air Force | Air Force | 78% | Air Force | 75% | — |
 #20South Carolina at  Arkansas | South Carolina | 76% | South Carolina | 78% | South Carolina |
 Kansas State at  TCU | TCU | 76% | TCU | 72% | — |
 Wisconsin at  Maryland | Wisconsin | 75% | Wisconsin | 79% | — |
 Minnesota at  Penn State | Penn State | 75% | Penn State | 81% | — |
 James Madison at  UConn | James Madison | 73% | James Madison | 67% | — |
 Wyoming at  UTEP | Wyoming | 72% | Wyoming | 84% | — |
 Northwestern at  #21Ohio State | Ohio State | 72% | Ohio State | 84% | Ohio State |
 Massachusetts at  Toledo | Toledo | 71% | Toledo | 86% | — |
 Arizona State at  UCF | UCF | 70% | UCF | 55% | — |
 #9Tennessee at  Texas A&M | Tennessee | 69% | Tennessee | 59% | Tennessee |
 Troy at  South Alabama | South Alabama | 69% | South Alabama | 53% | — |
 Kennesaw State at  Sam Houston | Kennesaw State | 68% | Kennesaw State | 72% | — |
 Florida Atlantic at  Tulsa | Tulsa | 65% | Tulsa | 76% | — |
 #15USC at  #6Indiana | Indiana | 65% | Indiana | 76% | Indiana |
 Fresno State at  Texas State | Texas State | 65% | Texas State | 73% | — |
 Kent State at  Bowling Green | Bowling Green | 64% | Bowling Green | 74% | — |
 Florida at  #13Kentucky | Kentucky | 63% | Kentucky | 61% | Kentucky |
 #19Ole Miss at  Oklahoma | Ole Miss | 62% | Ole Miss | 55% | Ole Miss |
 Kansas at  West Virginia | West Virginia | 62% | Kansas Differs | 63% | — |
| #10Texas Tech at Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State | 62% | Texas Tech Differs | 51% | Texas TechSplit |
 UAB at  Temple | Temple | 61% | Temple | 53% | — |
| #8Texas at #24LSU | LSU | 60% | LSU | 61% | TexasSplit |
 Arkansas State at  Coastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina | 60% | Arkansas State Differs | 52% | — |
 #11Wake Forest at  #25SMU | Wake Forest | 59% | Wake Forest | 60% | Wake Forest |
 Cincinnati at  Iowa State | Iowa State | 59% | Iowa State | 50% | — |
 Florida International at  Delaware | Delaware | 59% | Delaware | 51% | — |
 Baylor at  #12BYU | BYU | 59% | BYU | 62% | BYU |
 North Texas at  UTSA | North Texas | 58% | North Texas | 62% | — |
 New Mexico State at  Missouri State | Missouri State | 56% | New Mexico State Differs | 53% | — |
 Auburn at  Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 56% | Mississippi State | 58% | — |
 Colorado State at  Washington State | Washington State | 56% | Washington State | 67% | — |
 Florida State at  Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 56% | Pittsburgh | 64% | — |
 Syracuse at  NC State | Syracuse | 56% | NC State Differs | 53% | — |
 #2Utah at  #22Arizona | Utah | 56% | Utah | 56% | Utah |
 App State at  Marshall | App State | 56% | App State | 51% | — |
 Tulane at  Rice | Rice | 55% | Rice | 55% | — |
 Louisville at  North Carolina | Louisville | 54% | Louisville | 58% | — |
 Washington at  Michigan State | Michigan State | 53% | Washington Differs | 59% | — |
 Georgia Southern at  Georgia State | Georgia Southern | 52% | Georgia Southern | 51% | — |
 Ohio at  Miami (OH) | Ohio | 52% | Ohio | 55% | — |
 Utah State at  San Diego State | San Diego State | 52% | Utah State Differs | 66% | — |
 Memphis at  South Florida | Memphis | 51% | Memphis | 55% | — |
 Buffalo at  Ball State | Ball State | 50% | Ball State | 53% | — |