Top 25 vs ML

2026 · our ranking (wins above bubble, no polls consulted) next to the ML predictive ranking released after the same week's games. Gap: how many spots higher we have a team than the ML does. Who picks games better is on the Scoreboard.

Week 6

In both top 25s19/25

Average gap6.2spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.57over the ML's 25

Biggest splitKentucky#7 here · unranked in the ML

Ours	Team	ML	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Notre Dame	1	=	+1.45	6-0
02	Georgia	5	+3	+1.43	6-0
03	Indiana	6	+3	+1.35	6-0
04	Alabama	2	−2	+1.32	5-1
05	Texas Tech	12	+7	+1.17	5-0
06	UCLA	11	+5	+1.12	5-0
07	Kentucky	—	ML NR	+1.05	5-1
08	BYU	17	+9	+1.00	5-0
09	Miami	4	−5	+0.98	5-0
10	Mississippi State	22	+12	+0.79	4-1
11	Houston	18	+7	+0.66	5-1
12	Texas	8	−4	+0.65	4-1
13	James Madison	—	ML NR	+0.61	6-0
14	Utah	9	−5	+0.57	5-0
15	Wake Forest	20	+5	+0.42	5-1
16	Boise State	—	ML NR	+0.39	5-1
17	Missouri	13	−4	+0.37	5-1
18	Wisconsin	21	+3	+0.30	4-1
19	Ohio State	3	−16	+0.29	5-1
20	Ole Miss	10	−10	+0.26	4-1
21	USC	15	−6	+0.24	6-1
22	Iowa	—	ML NR	+0.18	5-1
23	Northwestern	—	ML NR	+0.06	4-1
24	UTSA	—	ML NR	+0.04	5-1
25	Nebraska	14	−11	+0.01	5-1
In the ML top 25, outside ours
44	LSU	7	−37	−0.64	4-2
34	Oregon	16	−18	−0.31	3-2
30	Oklahoma	19	−11	−0.11	3-2
72	Texas A&M	23	−49	−1.54	3-3
57	Michigan	24	−33	−1.22	3-2
26	Tennessee	25	−1	−0.00	5-1

Week 7

In both top 25s18/25

Average gap6.9spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.46over the ML's 25

Biggest splitKentucky#2 here · unranked in the ML

Ours	Team	ML	Gap	WAB	Record
01	BYU	13	+12	+1.69	6-0
02	Kentucky	—	ML NR	+1.33	6-1
03	UCLA	17	+14	+1.30	6-0
04	Miami	5	+1	+1.27	6-0
05	Texas Tech	11	+6	+1.19	6-0
06	Houston	21	+15	+1.00	6-1
07	Ohio State	2	−5	+0.88	6-1
08	Indiana	7	−1	+0.92	6-1
09	Notre Dame	1	−8	+0.86	6-1
10	James Madison	—	ML NR	+0.84	7-0
11	Ole Miss	9	−2	+0.79	5-1
12	Tennessee	15	+3	+0.74	6-1
13	Utah	10	−3	+0.69	6-0
14	Georgia	3	−11	+0.53	6-1
15	Alabama	4	−11	+0.64	5-2
16	Wake Forest	20	+4	+0.51	6-1
17	Northwestern	—	ML NR	+0.27	5-1
18	Iowa	19	+1	+0.23	5-1
19	Florida	—	ML NR	+0.21	5-2
20	Oregon	18	−2	+0.19	4-2
21	USC	12	−9	+0.32	6-1
22	Boise State	—	ML NR	+0.29	5-1
23	Mississippi State	—	ML NR	+0.17	4-2
24	Texas	8	−16	+0.03	4-2
25	UTSA	—	ML NR	+0.19	6-1
In the ML top 25, outside ours
30	LSU	6	−24	−0.15	5-2
34	Missouri	14	−20	−0.32	5-2
38	Nebraska	16	−22	−0.54	5-2
31	Wisconsin	22	−9	−0.17	4-2
58	South Carolina	23	−35	−1.28	3-3
32	Liberty	24	−8	−0.19	5-1
53	Michigan	25	−28	−1.08	4-2

Week 8

In both top 25s18/25

Average gap6.5spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.59over the ML's 25

Biggest splitKentucky#1 here · unranked in the ML

Ours	Team	ML	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Kentucky	—	ML NR	+1.63	7-1
02	Miami	4	+2	+1.59	7-0
03	UCLA	11	+8	+1.52	7-0
04	Indiana	3	−1	+1.39	7-1
05	BYU	20	+15	+1.11	6-1
06	Utah	10	+4	+1.08	7-0
07	Alabama	5	−2	+1.02	6-2
08	Notre Dame	1	−7	+1.00	6-1
09	Ohio State	2	−7	+0.99	6-1
10	Wake Forest	13	+3	+0.69	6-1
11	Texas	8	−3	+0.64	5-2
12	Georgia	7	−5	+0.62	6-1
13	UTSA	—	ML NR	+0.47	7-1
14	Texas Tech	19	+5	+0.47	6-1
15	Houston	23	+8	+0.55	6-2
16	Arizona	21	+5	+0.37	6-1
17	Northwestern	—	ML NR	+0.36	6-1
18	Boise State	—	ML NR	+0.33	6-1
19	Florida	—	ML NR	+0.30	5-2
20	Ole Miss	9	−11	+0.53	5-2
21	LSU	6	−15	+0.36	6-2
22	Wisconsin	18	−4	+0.26	5-2
23	SMU	—	ML NR	+0.22	6-1
24	Tennessee	12	−12	+0.13	6-2
25	James Madison	—	ML NR	+0.03	7-1
In the ML top 25, outside ours
38	Nebraska	14	−24	−0.55	5-2
33	USC	15	−18	−0.22	6-2
32	Oregon	16	−16	−0.42	4-3
26	Liberty	17	−9	−0.04	6-1
36	Iowa	22	−14	−0.49	5-2
40	South Carolina	24	−16	−0.76	4-3
29	Oklahoma	25	−4	−0.38	4-3

Week 9

In both top 25s20/25

Average gap6.7spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.57over the ML's 25

Biggest splitBYU#6 here · unranked in the ML

Ours	Team	ML	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Miami	7	+6	+2.00	8-0
02	Kentucky	21	+19	+1.62	7-1
03	UCLA	11	+8	+1.47	8-0
04	Utah	10	+6	+1.40	8-0
05	Indiana	5	=	+1.30	8-1
06	BYU	—	ML NR	+1.05	7-1
07	Notre Dame	1	−6	+0.98	7-1
08	Wake Forest	15	+7	+0.89	7-1
09	Georgia	6	−3	+0.85	7-1
10	Alabama	4	−6	+0.97	6-2
11	Texas	8	−3	+0.83	6-2
12	Ole Miss	9	−3	+0.95	6-2
13	Texas Tech	16	+3	+0.74	7-1
14	Boise State	—	ML NR	+0.68	7-1
15	UTSA	—	ML NR	+0.52	7-1
16	Houston	—	ML NR	+0.47	6-2
17	USC	18	+1	+0.45	7-2
18	Ohio State	2	−16	+0.54	6-2
19	LSU	3	−16	+0.43	6-2
20	Tennessee	14	−6	+0.18	6-2
21	Liberty	12	−9	+0.09	7-1
22	Missouri	22	=	+0.02	6-2
23	Florida	—	ML NR	+0.10	5-3
24	Iowa	13	−11	−0.06	6-2
25	Oregon	20	−5	−0.07	5-3
In the ML top 25, outside ours
33	South Carolina	17	−16	−0.49	5-3
58	Nebraska	19	−39	−1.45	5-3
53	Michigan	23	−30	−1.31	5-3
27	Arizona	24	−3	−0.20	6-2
29	Northwestern	25	−4	−0.27	6-2

Week 10

In both top 25s19/25

Average gap6.3spots, teams in both

Rank correlation0.60over the ML's 25

Biggest splitKentucky#7 here · unranked in the ML

Ours	Team	ML	Gap	WAB	Record
01	Alabama	3	+2	+1.84	7-2
02	UCLA	13	+11	+1.78	9-0
03	Utah	15	+12	+1.77	9-0
04	Notre Dame	2	−2	+1.64	8-1
05	Miami	4	−1	+1.86	8-1
06	Georgia	1	−5	+1.57	8-1
07	Kentucky	—	ML NR	+1.31	7-2
08	Texas	8	=	+1.20	7-2
09	Indiana	6	−3	+1.15	8-1
10	Wake Forest	9	−1	+0.86	8-1
11	BYU	25	+14	+0.73	7-2
12	Texas Tech	19	+7	+0.72	8-1
13	Oregon	16	+3	+0.70	6-3
14	Boise State	—	ML NR	+0.84	8-1
15	Tennessee	11	−4	+0.62	7-2
16	Houston	—	ML NR	+0.59	7-2
17	Ole Miss	14	−3	+0.42	6-3
18	USC	17	−1	+0.38	7-2
19	Iowa	12	−7	+0.35	7-2
20	Liberty	10	−10	+0.16	8-1
21	New Mexico	—	ML NR	+0.15	8-1
22	Ohio State	5	−17	−0.00	6-3
23	Arizona	—	ML NR	−0.01	7-2
24	LSU	7	−17	−0.06	6-3
25	Wisconsin	—	ML NR	−0.11	6-3
In the ML top 25, outside ours
26	South Carolina	18	−8	−0.14	6-3
69	Nebraska	20	−49	−2.04	5-4
45	Louisville	21	−24	−1.04	6-3
33	Missouri	22	−11	−0.66	6-3
32	Oklahoma	23	−9	−0.63	5-4
31	SMU	24	−7	−0.43	7-2

Across the season

Week	In both top 25s	Average gap	Rank correlation
W6	19/25	6.2	0.57
W7	18/25	6.9	0.46
W8	18/25	6.5	0.59
W9	20/25	6.7	0.57
W10	19/25	6.3	0.60

The two answer different questions. Ours: what has a team earned? The ML engine: how good is it, and who would win on a neutral field next week? It reads play-by-play efficiency, Elo and roster talent, so a team that keeps winning close games can rank lower there, and a strong team with bad luck higher.