Week 10: Alabama takes over at No. 1
Who moved, where I split with the committee, and the games I'm watching in week 11.
By Maxwell Monson ·
New No. 1 this week: Alabama, which beat No. 19 LSU 31–13 on the road. It was a rough week up top: Miami, Kentucky, and BYU all lost. Two unbeaten FBS teams are left: UCLA and Utah.
Who moved
- Oregon (up 12 to No. 13) beat No. 18 Ohio State 41–28 on the road. That one game was worth +0.70 wins above bubble.
- Tennessee (up 5 to No. 15) beat No. 2 Kentucky 34–6 at home.
- UTSA (down 12 to No. 27) lost at Florida Atlantic, 60–29.
- Missouri (down 11 to No. 33) lost at home to No. 11 Texas, 34–20.
- Florida (down 11 to No. 34) lost at home to Oklahoma, 23–7.
- Joining the top 25: New Mexico (No. 21), Arizona (No. 23), and Wisconsin (No. 25).
Me vs. the committee
Where I split hardest with the committee (their latest top 25, released after week 9):
- Boise State: No. 14 for me, No. 25 for the committee. At 8-1, the record carries them.
- I have Oregon at No. 13; the committee has them No. 23. They have three wins over teams in my top 25.
- Ohio State is No. 12 for the committee and No. 22 for me. Three losses is a lot for a résumé ranking to forgive.
What the stats model sees
The team my two models disagree on most: Kentucky, No. 7 on résumé, No. 32 in the stats model. The results are real. The underlying numbers just aren't as convinced.
Flip side: Ohio State is only No. 22 on résumé but No. 5 in the stats model. The losses count, but on a per-play basis this is still one of the better teams in the country.
If you want to see how the stats model gets there, the Matchup predictor breaks it down.
How my picks did
My power model went 40–22 picking FBS games this week (65%). The stats model went 42–20 on the games it had. Just taking the AP's higher-ranked team went 12–4. The AP and I split on five games; I won two of them. Season to date: 334–177 (65%). The full record is on the scoreboard.
Games I'm watching
- Oregon State at No. 14 Boise State. Stats model: Boise State by about 9, 72% to win. For Boise State it's a big one: 94% playoff odds with a win, 2% with a loss. Run it in the matchup predictor →
- No. 18 USC at No. 9 Indiana. Indiana is the pick, 76% by about 11. For Indiana it's a big one: 91% playoff odds with a win, 37% with a loss. Run it in the matchup predictor →
- No. 10 Wake Forest at SMU. Wake Forest is the pick, 60% by about 4. Wake Forest's playoff odds swing from 74% to 9% on this game. Run it in the matchup predictor →
If it ended today
If it ended today, my four byes go to Alabama (1), UCLA (2), Utah (3), and Notre Dame (4). Last ones in: BYU, Wake Forest, and Indiana. First ones out: Texas Tech, Oregon, and Tennessee. Boise State (No. 14) gets in as a projected conference champion. Compared with a bracket built from the committee's top 25, I have Wake Forest in and Ole Miss out. See the whole bracket →
— Maxwell